Nathanial.Dread wrote:The thing I am more concerned about is Israel/Palestine. I know this happens every couple of years, but this time feels different. That's a conflict that could draw in the US and a bunch of other well-armed states in the Middle East, and if things get bad enough, I could see it going nuclear.
How do you feel this time is different? Israel is safer than ever since they have had their Iron Dome system put in place; it is extremely effective. The missile batteries are actually programmed in such a way that it calculates the trajectory of the incoming rocket and if that rocket is aimed at a population center it is intercepted. Rockets with a trajectory to land in a non-populous area are allowed to explode. Israel is more capable of protecting itself than it has ever been since its inception. Since the current ground incursion ~350 Palestinians have been confirmed dead (3/4 of which have been identified as civilians) while Israel has sustained 3 confirmed casualties as of the time I type this post.
The US isn't going to be drawn into this conflict since it is so incredibly one sided.
While Obama has supported Israel's right to defend itself he has also expressed "deep concern" about the number of civilian deaths. I can't think of any likely scenario where other countries are drawn into this conflict outside of arbitration positions. I definitely can't see this going nuclear. Syria, Iraq, and Iran are all too caught up in their own troubles to bother with the current Gazan conflict. Egypt has taken an anti-Hamas position. The only countries in the region that have actually been vocal against Israel in any meaningful way are Turkey and Pakistan and they only offered a harsh critique of Israeli actions. Pakistan's economy is completely dependent upon foreign aid from the States and Turkey is a NATO member with close ties to the United States, while both may condemn Israel neither will act against them.
Unless something truly unexpected and game-changing happens this current conflict will probably end through an arbitrated ceasefire, and likely in the near future. As you have mentioned, this scenario repeats every few years and pretty much always ends the same way. Large portions of Gaza and its infrastructure will be destroyed, Hamas's power and leadership will be greatly reduced, and a ceasefire will be signed until we play the game all over again in a few years.
Of course this is all just my opinion of the ongoing hostilities. I enjoy discussing foreign policy and world news and if you would like to expound on why you feel this time is different I'd love to hear your opinion, especially regarding the usage of nuclear weapons or your rationale of what other countries may join the conflict.