Edit: Updating formulas from previous post earlier today which was not quite right.
Let's call Mt the total amount of mescaline in the water before the first pull. Each time a pull is done (under the same conditions), a fraction of this mescaline moves into the solvent. If we call that fraction p, then then during the first pull M1 = p*Mt will move into the solvent, and W1 = (p-1)*Mt will stay in the water. During the second pull, M2 = p*(p-1)*Mt will move into the solvent and W2 = (p-1)*(p-1)*Mt will stain in the water, and so on.
A practical way to estimate p is to divide the mescaline obtained from the first and second pulls since,
M1/M2 = 1/(1-p), or
p = 1- M2/M1
And a practical way to estimate Mt is by remembering that M1 = p*Mt which can be rearranged to,
Mt = M1/(1-M2/M1), or
Mt = M1^2/(M1-M2)
So in other words, by measuring what is obtained from each of the first two pulls, you can have an idea of the partition coefficient and the total amount of product in the water. But wait, there is more
After n pulls the amount of mescaline that moves into the solvent for that pull is:
Mn = p*Mt*(1-p)^(n-1)
And the amount remaining in the water after that pull is,
Wn = Mt*(1-p)^n
The
total amount pulled after n pulls is simply the starting amount of mescaline minus what remains in the water,
Tn = Mt - Wn = Mt*[1-(1-p)^n]
The ratio of total mescaline pulled to starting mescaline after n pulls is,
Rn = Tn/Mt = 1-(1-p)^n
And this last formula can be re-arranged to get the number of pulls for a certain ratio of total mescaline pulled,
n = log (1-Rn) / log (1-p), or
n = log(1-Rn) / log(M2/M1)
Let's go over an example that uses some of the formulas above. Suppose you are pulling DMT one day and measure what you get from the first two pulls. Let's say you get,
M1 = 350mg
M2 = 210mg
A lot of stuff can be estimated from these two numbers
:
- Your pull coefficient p = 1- 210/350 ~ 0.40
- The
total estimated DMT in the water Mt = 350^2/(350-210) = 875mg
- You can estimate that the water still has W2 = 875 - 350 - 210 = 315mg. (Note that alternatively you can use the general formula for Wn for the case n=2, W2 = 875*(1-.4)^2 = 315mg.)
- Lets say you want to get at least 90% of what is in the water, how many pulls do you need? That would simply be n = log (1-0.9) / log (210/350) ~ 4.5, which means go for 5 pulls (do 3 more). After the 5 pulls you can expect to have pulled R5 = 1-(0.6)^5 = 0.92, or 92% of the DMT that was originally in the water (which is above 90% as expected).
Now let's look at Elrik's fit for Mn,
Mn = p*Mt*(1-p)^(n-1) = 1.31*(0.67)^n
One can see from the formulas above that 1-p = 0.67, that is, p = 0.33
Also one can see from the rest of the formula that p*Mt/(1-p) = 1.31, since we now that p =0.33, that means that Mt = 1.31*0.67/0.33 = 2.66g.
Looks like Elrik did 5 pulls. What % of the starting mescaline has he pulled out?
R5 = 1-(1-p)^n = 1-(0.67)^5 = 0.86, or 86%.
Which means Elrik should have about 2.30g of mescaline total after the 5th pull
and 360mg still in the water.